Five Keys for the 2008 Chicago Cubs

I have never been a "wait-til-next-year" Cub fan and I have never been a "this-is-our-year" Cub fan. I've always managed to remain somewhat realistic. I will admit, that I had huge hopes going into 2004. That season was a disaster and still one of the biggest disappointments of my sports life. So I am certainly cautious coming off of the 2007 playoff appearance. I don't think that "this is our year," but I do think the National League is up for grabs. I don't see that there's a clear favorite. Although I believe with the Arizona lineup maturing and the addition of Dan Haren, they will win the most games in the NL. I think the Cubs will win their division with between 88 and 92 wins. Optimistic? Perhaps.

Preface: They had a brutal year last year and won 85 games. They certainly didn't get any worse on paper since last year. Perhaps the roster doesn't look better, but it is certainly more stable. In 2007 it took Lou Piniella two months to figure out what he had and what he wanted from this roster (and to untangle the Dusty leftovers). Once it was solidified, things got much better. I think that's worth a few wins right there. Piniella has an idea from the get-go this year. And the players have him figured out somewhat as well. The starting pitching isn't scary, but it's certainly deeper. With Lieber and Marshall waiting in the wings, we won't have to depend on a hail mary trade like the Steve Trachsel deal last year. What's more, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Carlos Zambrano all had a subpar (for their standards) year in 2007. I bet that doesn't happen again this season. That's worth something, right?



TOP FIVE KEYS FOR THE 08 CUBS


5. Michael Barrett is gone. I hate to even include this, because Barrett was one of my favorite players while he was a Cub. It wasn't until after he left that I realized how valuable he wasn't. After the fight with Zambrano, the end was near. He was dealt to San Diego after he played his final game as a Cub against the Rangers on June 20th. The Cubs promptly went on their longest winning streak of the year (seven games). They turned their entire season around. Want more? Barrett hit .226 with 0 HRs and 12 RBIs after leaving Chicago. The Padres (who were 41-29) immediately lost four of five (and eleven of 19). They missed the playoffs. I think Barrett's still a nice player and an above-average offensive catcher. But not having him and guys like Will Ohman around can only boost employee morale for 2008.

4. Kerry Wood is the closer. But not because Kerry Wood is the closer. It's because Carlos Marmol isn't. Not that Carlos Marmol isn't good enough to close, it's that he's too good to close. I'll explain. Putting Woody in the ninth gives you that imposing figure with filthy stuff. But it also frees up Marmol for your most important moments of the game. There's been an increasing sentiment in recent years--challenging the notion of using your closer solely in the ninth (or at the end of the game). Maybe he should be used to get the biggest outs, wherever they are. Marmol was the best reliever last year. With Wood reserved for the traditional closer role, Marmol can still be as valuable as always. And who knows, maybe that means bailing Woody out in the ninth a time or two...

3. The catcher position. I, for one am not getting caught up in the brilliant year Geovany Soto had at AAA last year. He was the MVP and hit 28 HRs. Then he came up to Chicago and hit .389 in 18 games with the big club. A repeat would be wonderful, but it would be ridiculous to expect that this year. Instead, I'm just glad to know who the catcher is going to be. Geovany Soto really doesn't have to be good. He just has to be there. Last year you were drawing names out of the hat. Koyie Hill? Rob Bowen? Henry Blanco? Jason Kendall? Gag. This is one position that needs stability. And now you have it. In fact, all Soto needs to do is bat .226 with 12 HRs and 66 RBIs to match the combined numbers of the rest of the Cub catching staff from 2008. Pretty sad. I'm not expecting huge offensive numbers. But I hope he stays back there all year long. And it's been said that Soto is the ultimate pitcher's reciever. The guys love to throw to him. He's a universe better defensively than Michael Barrett.

2. Fukudome. No I don't think Kosuke Fukudome will post very flashy offensive numbers this season either. He won't be the next Ichiro. Heck, he won't even be the next Matsui. It seems you can count on cutting these guys' power numbers in half when they come to the States. I'm not expecting anything more than .271, 14, and 68. He's 30, was hurt last year, and never put up astounding power numbers even in Japan (career high 34 HRs in 140 games). The high on-base is nice. The left-handed hitting thing is nice. And the fact that he can (probably) hit the cutoff man is nice. But the Cubs got seemingly nothing from Jacque Jones last year. Replacing him with the reportedly fundamental Fukudome has to be considered an upgrade, no matter how he hits. And one the Cubs absolutely needed. Being able to write him into right field day in and day out is a comforting proposal. Just don't expect him to go put up MVPish numbers.

1. Rich Hill. Go ahead and pencil in Zambrano for a winless April. He will make a late run at the Cy Young but end up with a middling ERA, right? Probably. Some say Zambrano will be much better without the distraction of ongoing contract discussions this year. But it says here he still struggles in April. Ted Lilly probably pitched a little over his head last year. But if Rich Hill can take the next step, it will take a ton of pressure off of numbers one and two. He's tall (6'5), a lefty, and has the biggest curve ball in the majors. He has the potential to be one of the best southpaws in the National League. When that is going to happen is the question. 2008 will only be his second full season in a major league uniform. I think he's the single most important piece to the puzzle this year. I'm ready for huge things from him. He's technically the number three starter, but will pitch fourth in the rotation. Imagine having a 14 to 16 game winner as your fourth starter. I think it can happen this year. If Rich Hill has a good season, the Cubs will make the playoffs.


(And while I'm at it, here's my dream lineup for the Cubs...[assuming they don't get Brian Roberts])

1. Derrek Lee (1B)
2. Kosuke Fukudome (RF)
3. Alfonso Soriano (LF)
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B)
5. Geovany Soto (C)
6. Mark DeRosa (2B)
7. Ryan Theriot (SS)
8. Pitcher
9. Felix Pie (CF)

I promise you that lineup would win 100 games.